More and more countries are facing the twin challenges of population decline and aging as younger generations are having fewer children and advances in health care are increasing life expectancy.
China said on Friday that its population will shrink by almost 1.4 million to 1.408 billion in 2024, for the third year in a row. Elsewhere in Asia, Japan’s population has been declining for 15 years, while growth in South Korea has turned negative in 2021. The number of births in Italy has fallen below 400,000 for the first time since the 19th century.
The United Nations reports that the population has peaked in 63 countries and territories, with nearly half in Europe. According to UN projections, another 48 people will reach their peak in the next 30 years.
The global population of 8.2 billion is still growing, with the UN predicting it will reach 10.3 billion in about 60 years and then begin to decline.
For many countries with declining populations, the trend is slow but difficult to reverse, prompting governments to offer financial incentives to encourage people to have children to support the growing numbers.
Japan has lost 3 million people since 2008
Yoshimasa Hayashi, the chief secretary of the Cabinet of Ministers of the Japanese government, called last year’s demographic situation critical, saying that the next six years will be “the last chance for us to reverse the trend.”
Japan’s population peaked at 128 million in 2008 and has since fallen to 125 million. In 2023, the number of births reached a record high of 730,000.
Surveys show that young Japanese are increasingly reluctant to marry or have children, discouraged by bleak job prospects, the cost of living rising faster than wages and a corporate culture that is difficult for women and working mothers.
Japan’s population is projected to fall to 87 million by 2070, when four out of 10 people will be 65 or older.
One segment of the population is still growing: an 11% increase in the number of foreign residents helped their population exceed 3 million in 2023 for the first time, accounting for about 3% of the total population.
Higher retirement age and ‘old universities’ in China
China is aging, a trend that could dampen economic growth and challenge the government’s ability to accommodate a larger aging population with fewer workers.
Some see an opportunity. The “old people’s university” located in Beijing, the capital of China, accepted 150 students for dance, singing, yoga and modeling classes. The business has yet to take off, but founder Liu Xiugin believes the market has a future, given the value that retirees born in the 1960s place on quality of life and health compared to previous generations.
Over the next 15 years, the government is raising the retirement age from 60 to 63 for men, from 50 to 55 for women in factories and other blue-collar jobs, and from 55 to 58 for women in white-collar jobs.
After the population began to decline in 2022, China lost its position as the most populous country to India in 2023. Even as China’s one-child policy has been relaxed to allow up to three children, women are giving birth to fewer children.
The population of 1.4 billion – still 10 times that of Japan – is projected to drop to 1.3 billion by 2050.
The Pope urges Italians to have more children
A number of Vatican-backed Italian governments have pledged to address the social, economic and cultural causes behind one of the world’s lowest birth rates.
Pope Francis has repeatedly urged Italians to have more children to reverse the demographic winter facing many industrialized nations.
Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s government has a campaign to encourage at least 500,000 births a year by 2033, a rate demographers say is needed to prevent the economy from collapsing as the salaried population grows and retirees draw down their pensions.
The number of births fell from about 577,000 in 2008 to 380,000 in 2023, the first year since Italian unification that the number fell below 400,000.
Research shows that this is due to a combination of factors, including a lack of open spaces for affordable childcare, low wages and a tradition of women caring for elderly parents.
Foreigners are reversing the decline in South Korea, but just barely
South Korea’s population grew again in 2023 thanks to an influx of foreigners.
The birth rate has fallen again in a country where many young people do not feel the obligation of their parents and grandparents to have children.
Some find it costly to raise children in a highly competitive education system and avoid a patriarchal culture that forces women to shoulder most of the childcare responsibilities.
The country’s Yonhap news agency reports with reference to the government statistics agency that the number of foreign residents increased by 10% and reached 1.9 million people.
This was enough for a slight increase in the total population – an increase of 0.2% to 51.8 million people.
9.5 million of them are aged 65 and over. Demographic trends have led to concerns about labor shortages and strained government budgets.
Associated Press writer Nicole Winfield in Rome contributed.